Which MLB Draft was better 2018 or 219? Part 2

by | Jul 2, 2020 | General | 0 comments

This is part two of a series where I am going to give my opinion on which MLB draft’s top 10 players have higher potential. Picks numbered 6-10 are as follows:

The number six pick in the 2019 MLB draft was CJ Abrams. He is a shortstop with a fantastic hit tool drafted by the San Diego Padres. While the San Diego Padres have a shortstop named Fernando Tatis Jr., he may or may not be able to stay at the position long term due to defensive deficiencies. While Abrams may never win a gold glove he may be a better answer at the shortstop position long term. Regardless of where he ends up, his bat, which allowed him to hit .393 across two levels during his first season of pro ball, will play anywhere. What further allows him to have the potential of a dynamic leadoff hitter in the future is his top of the scale speed which is ranked an 80 on the 20-80 scale. The number six pick in the 2018 MLB draft was Jarred Kelenic. He is a five-tool monster who has a career minor league OPS of .882 in just two minor league seasons, with 29 homeruns and 35 steals. He may end up being the best player in the 2018 draft as he came in to the draft regarded as the best high school hitter and has further honed his skills as he has moved up the minor league ladder. Already in double A at just age 20 he may be knocking on the MLB door as early as 2020. While Abrams may one day be one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball, Jarred Kelenic is a true five tool superstar who seemingly gets better every day. While the Mets will regret trading him for a very long time the Mariners look like they have their next franchise player who could be up as early as this year.

The number seven pick in the 2019 MLB draft was the first pitcher taken in the draft, Nick Lodollo. He is a tall lefty at 6’6’’ out of Texas Christian University. He has three above average pitches and has shown an ability to command each one. He still has some projection left in his frame and he pitched very well despite only throwing eighteen and a third innings. He looks like he will move quickly and will be a main stay in a big-league rotation for a long time. The number seven overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft was Ryan Weathers of the San Diego Padres out of Loretto High School. He is another lefty pitcher who is currently the number nine prospect in a deep San Diego farm system. Weathers is the son of former MLB Picher David Weathers and while he does have four solid pitch’s he lacks a true out pitch. Weather struggled in the second half of his first minor league season, but he looks like he will fit nicely in to the middle of a big-league rotation. While both these pitchers offer fairly high floors I believe Lodollo’s slightly better stuff, out of his tall frame, allows for a bit more potnetial moving forward. While Weathers could end up being a three or a four starter in a big-league rotation I see Lodollo more as a two or a three and give him the slight edge here.

The number eight pick in the 2019 MLB draft was Josh Jung a third Baseman out of Texas Tech University. He is regarded as a polished hitter and despite questions about his future power potential he has shown reliable hands and a strong arm at the hot corner. His power may ultimately determine his celling, but he may have the potential to hit as many as twenty-five or more homeruns to go along with his other sound tools. The eighth overall pick in 2018 was Carter Stewart who ultimately did not sign with the Atlanta braves after they drafted him. He threw 96-97 MPH when he was drafted and had a power curve that was regarded as one of the best breaking balls in the draft. Stewart had suffered a wrist injury and the Braves offered him a a signing bonus below slot value after the draft and he chose not to sign. He then enrolled at Eastern Florida State College for the next season and threw 13 starts with a 1.70 ERA. He then decided to sign a six-year deal to play in Japan with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks of Nippon Professional baseball. Now we have no idea if we will ever see Carter Stewart on the mound for an MLB team and as a result Josh Jung is the player I would rather have going forward. Now Carter Stewart may have made this interesting if he had continued putting up strong college numbers and reentered the MLB draft at some point.

The number nine overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft was catcher Shea Langeliers out of Baylor University. Langeliers has always been a world class defender He also has plus raw power that he has to hit consistently to tap into moving forward. With a floor as a defensive minded starter or backup, if he hits consistently he could be one of the better all-around catchers in baseball. The ninth overall pick in the 2018 draft was Kyler Murray. People now know Murray for his football exploits as he decided to go back to college to play football after being drafted by the Atheletics and chose to continue on a path towards professional football. He was then the first overall pick of the Arizona Cardinals and was the 2019 Offensive Rookie of the year in the NFL. While Murray was a raw baseball player coming out of college due to him splitting time between football and baseball he was an exceptional athlete. Now that doesn’t always translate well into being a great baseball player, as there are many stories of great athlete such as Bubba Starling and Lewis Brinson who have not lived up to the potential many saw in them at the draft. Shea Langeliers is the player I would choose out of the two and if Murray had reached his MLB ceiling he may be the pick but Langeliers has such a high floor and the potential for so much more that he is the right choice either way here.

Lastly the number 10 pick in the 2019 MLB draft was Hunter Bishop selected by the San Fransisco Giants. He is a toolsy outfielder out of Arizona State. He has tremendous raw power but there is also some swing and miss to his game. He was inconsistent throughout his career up until his junior year of college. He also has the speed to play center field and be a threat on the base paths. In his small sample after being selected he only hit .229 but had a .438 on base percentage. Those are two numbers that usually do not align in that way, but Bishop walked almost as much as he struck out. While his potential will depend on how well he hits going forward he has the tools to be a dynamic player should everything come together even if there is still swing and miss in his game. The tenth pick in the 2018 draft was another toolsy college hitter out of South Alabama named Travis Swaggerty. While all his tools rate as a 50 or better on the 20-80 scale he has only hit .257 so far in the minors with 14 homeruns in 173 games played. He is similar to Bishop in that his ability to make contract will determine his ceiling, but he has the speed to play center and be a threat on the base paths. He did perform better in the second half of 2019 after some adjustments as well. While both hitters scouting reports are very similar Bishop is rated as a 55 overall compared to Swaggerty as a 50 overall on MLB.com. I give the slight edge to Bishop here since he is younger, and his eye was so good immediately upon entering pro ball. Both these players have similar ceilings and floors and it will be interesting to see if either or both can figure out what adjustments are necessary for them to make the big leagues.

Now I have looked at the top ten overall picks in the 2018 and 2019 MLB drafts. As of right now I give the slight edge to the 2019 draft. While the 2018 draft has the best pitcher in Mize and the best positon player in Kelenic, having lost Kyler Murray to football and Carter Stewart to Japan has hurt this draft. Even if I was to put both of them back in the 2019 draft still is a little better as Carter Stewart has never faced professional hitters and Kyler Murray was a very raw prospect and we do not know how his development would go. The top of the 2018 draft could be historic with the top 5 picks all looking like all stars and or MVP candidates the 2019 draft however has really good to all star players and maybe even some MVP candidates throughout its first ten picks. Now all stars and MVP candidate can come from all round and the rest of the first rounds could even change this going forward. Where I stand today may not be where I stand even a year from now but that is the fun of reflecting on the past, living in the now and dreaming about the future.

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