The New York Islanders have been a pleasant surprise for the
second season in a row, which is a delight to Islander fans who are used to
horrible surprises in back to back seasons, like naming your backup goalie your
new GM just in time to hand over a 15 year contract, and the shit shows that
But there is a refrain that started last season and has kept rolling, which is that the Islanders do not have enough offense. This narrative has not changed thanks to the free agent departure of some Toronto cuckold, the free agent rejection of a Russian who has won less than Ilya Kovalchuk in his career, the alleged rejection of an offer sheet for an opinionated kid out of Toronto that loves Matt Martin, and the failed trade for a Stone rolling out of Ottawa.
So when you read this thesis, you’re going to say that it’s
stupid. On some level I will agree with you, but for reasons that you won’t understand.
You’ll even say “How does that solve a problem?” And I’ll tell you how.
Here’s the thesis: Josh Bailey is Fucking Useless.
You might think you know how I got here, but trust me, you
have no idea.
At this point you’re having one of three reactions:
How dare I suggest that Mr. Islander Josh Bailey
Who is Josh Baily?
Let’s give each reaction their due.
First off, Islanders Kool Aid loves Bailey. Who are
Islanders Kool Aid. Here’s the litmus test. Just ask the following questions:
Did Charles Wang save the team?
Was Mike Milbury a shittier GM than Garth Snow?
If the answers are “Yes” and “Yes?” You got yourself some
Kool Aid. So what IS Islanders Kool Aid? They’re the fans that celebrate a
close loss. That think every prospect will exceed the production of Bryan
Trottier and Mike Bossy- especially Josh Ho-Sang. That the Islanders “won the
They’re a fan base that is wholly ready to fly a “We Tried”
banner next to the legends of the organization, and would retire the number of
a guy whose only organization leading stat is “Showed up to the arena.”
Bailey has been an Islander his entire career, since he was
passed on in his draft 8 times and was shockingly available every time the
Islanders traded down in that draft to acquire picks that they did absolutely
nothing to help the team with. How do I know? Where’s the Snake? And who also
caused the Islanders to trade a 5th overall pick years later to get
a guy taken a few picks after Bailey in Jordan Eberle. More on Eberle later.
Bailey’s career has been defined by 8 years of shitty
hockey, putting up around 30 points in each lackluster campaign in which the
only impact he made on the team was a negative one. Terrible goals totals for a
top 6 forward, peaking at 16 goals as a sophomore. A plus minus like a coal
mine in West Virginia.
There was not a lot to root for there, if you look at
Also, in Baileys first 8 years, he had burned through 3
Islander contracts. His entry level and RFA deals saw Bailey post 58 goals over
those five years- an average of 12 goals a season.
This was time for him to cash in. And it was the birth of
the Bailey paradox.
The Bailey paradox is the idea that because he’s our guy on
our team and he sucks? We have to like him. And the more he sucks? Like when he
takes no shots for 3 or 4, or5 games in a row? The more you love him. Also, he
has had spans where he has gone 3 or 4 or 5 games in a row without a shot.
Fun fact- Bailey had more games with zero shots on goal in
2018-2019 than Alexander Ovechkin has had in his entire career. But why would I
compare Bailey to Ovechkin? I didn’t. Kool Aid did.
Bailey’s mythology only grew when he took a “team friendly”
UFA contract in the summer of 2013. Kool Aid started to call him elite, citing
that he produced somewhere around four tenths of a point a game. Heady numbers.
To reward the organizations faith in his nearly $17 million contract coming off
of the first $5 million he made as an Islander? Bailey scored 8 goals over the
entire next season. Just like elite Ovechkin would, right?
In fact, every time Bailey signs a new contract? His numbers regress the very next season. Shocker!
This is when we get to reaction number two about Josh
Bailey- who is he?
Opposing teams fans will largely have no idea who he is. For
two reasons. One, they’ve watched their home teams play the Islanders and never
noticed him. Which explains the nickname “Invisibailey.” Ever see him take a
game off? Where he didn’t appear in a scoresheet save for attendance? Sure you
have. Other fans notice, too. They’re almost stunned when he does something,
because if you play the Islanders twice a year, he is very likely to do nothing
in either game. Maybe he gets a goal but probably not. Maybe a hit, but
Josh Bailey has as many career hat tricks as MICK VUKOTA.
Mick just became a top 6 forward! Speaking of…
A top six forward shouldn’t average 108 shots a year. That’s
not even near two a game. And a game where he puts up 5 shots- there are a
couple in his career- that’s 2 games off in return.
Also, Josh Bailey has never tested the free agent market.
Bailey signed an entry level deal, a restricted free agent deal, a “team
friendly” deal that tripled his salary, and another team friendly deal that
almost doubled it. Bailey is making a team friendly 6.25% of the entire salary
cap (it was a higher percentage when he signed the deal) to…avoid free agency.
When a player like John Tavares leaves the only team he ever
knew, it’s rare. He’s been super well compensated, treated like a king, and
usually has a team around him built to win. Usually. Garth Snow tried to build
a team around Tavares centered on Josh Bailey and Andrew Ladd. And we all saw
the results. Oh, how do I figure?
Ladd was the most significant Islanders free agent signing
in the last 5 years, and the entire Garth Snow era. And Bailey was the guy Snow
had to extend in season to show a commitment to winning to JT.
No wonder he ran home to Toronto to take the strap on.
But that’s Tavares. Bailey is on no comparable level to
Most unimportant players use free agency to shop their low
to average stats to hop from a team that may not be successful (Garth Snow
era?) to a team that feels it needs to make incremental improvements and can
use some “veteran leadership” and “experience” and “Hockey IQ” to cash in on a
raise that wasn’t available to the team that already saw what they had. But
that’s a competitive market.
It could backfire- see Vanek, Thomas. Boy, I’m sure he’s pissed that he said no to 7 years and $49 million from Garth Snow…a contract that the Islanders would still be paying out to him had he signed it. It only cost Vanek about $22 million that I bet he could use. Bet.
And in a competitive field? We already saw how Bailey
competes. He becomes Failey. Even if he left the Islanders for a contract better
than $30 million- which no one was offering- it would be on less years. And the
deal after that? Khunackhll money. Stupid fucking name.
Also, how do I know no one was offering? Garth Snow offered
Bailey at the 2015 draft straight up for a 1st round pick. Team friendly
deal? 29 rejections.
That’s why Bailey never bothered hitting the market. There
wasn’t one. He was a DeSoto in a Tesla world.
So when other fans say “Josh Bailey? Didn’t he score against
us when Jeremy Roenick was still on the team? Why do they sing songs about him?”
Because he is a Kool Aid legend. Like Charles Wang and Garth
Snow. And the word legend? It means shit you tell stories about that never really
Lastly, there is the kryptonite to Islanders Kool Aid. They are
referred to as Islanders Realists. Generally, they are curmudgeons. But they’re
terribly correct with their expectations. Maybe not as much in the Trotz Era,
but about 99% right before that.
Realists have the “No shit” reaction to my Josh Bailey is
useless premise. Because, Josh Bailey is useless.
Lets look at the Golden Age of Bailey. It’s like looking at
a game of Three Card Monty.
The Golden Age of Josh Bailey started when he was placed as
a first line forward with John Tavares, and ended the next season when he was a
first line forward with John Tavares and Anders Lee.
Why is it a Golden Age? Because in the 2016-2017 season Josh
Bailey did something he never did before. He led the league in a statistic. Sure,
it was arriving at the arena, which he tied with many other players. And only
scored one more goal than his career average despite never missing a game and
playing top 3 minutes. But first is first! And in fairness, he had a then
career high with 13 fucking goals added to a coattails 43 assists. But the best
was yet to come.
That watermark was the 2017-2018 season. Bailey had his only
career All Star appearance. Just as many invites as enforcer John Scott and
Buffalo Sabre Zemgus Girgensons, and just as deserving. But here’s the interesting
thing. Bailey made the 2018 All Star game- the ending of the Tavares Islanders era
game. But the unrestricted free agents Garth Snow let walk away in Frans
Neilsen and Kyle Okposo? They both made the 2017 All Star Game without riding
the coattails of John Tavares a year sooner.
Andres Ladd has yet to make an All Star game as an Islander.
But I’m pretty sure he mouthfucked a carp.
Bailey’s stats ramped up in 2018-2019 to a very respectable
71 points which is how he earned that All Star cap tip. But the thing I always
found interesting- on New Years Day 2019, Bailey had 50 points. He ended the
season with 71.
Bailey also did his best Mike Bossy impression, scoring 18
goals in 82 games. Sure, 50 in 50 sounds sexier, but did Bossy ever play in 82 games?
Nope. Not once. Inconsistent. Not like Bailey.
It’s not that every single winger that played a full time season with John Tavares scored at least 20 goals. It just happened for Matt Moulson, PA Parenteau, Brad Boyes, Kyle Okposo, Thomas Vanek, Anders Lee, Mitch Marner, Zach Hyman, Andrew Ladd, and Sparky.
I’m sure it wasn’t that Tavares took the last few days off
in that season to preserve himself for Toronto’s bidding so Bailey had no
coattails to ride. The only other options is, Bailey only had one guy to tap in
rebounds with, and Lee was prodigious in the last two weeks of the season or
else Bailey does 10 points between January and April.
Oh, Bailey signed that contract extension also, so why try?
None of Baileys 71 point masterstroke mattered, as the
Islanders missed the playoffs. Basically, his stats were the equivalent of jerking
off into a plant, Harvey Weinstein style.
And when Tavares left Bailey? Tavares had his best season
ever. SNAKE GOT RID OF BAILEY AND HAD HIS BEST SEASON EVER. There goes that
horseshit playmaker hockey IQ myth.
So even at Bailey’s absolute best, just two years ago when
he put up 71 points making $3.3 million a year, he was untradeable. That’s a
fucking problem. Because every team in the NHL saw his best effort, and it
landed the Islanders in the lottery.
You think Bailey would motivate a bad team to make a move to
ensure their reaching the salary cap floor while guaranteeing a lottery draft
pick- you know, just how Charles Wang saved the team. Yet no bad team wanted
And that’d because at any dollar amount, be it $825,000 or
$3,000,000 or $5,000,000, Josh Bailey is fucking useless.
Why is he useless? Because after his hallmark 18 goal
season, a funny thing happened. Bailey had his first real coach.
Islanders Kool Aid has always attributed Bailey’s lack of
utility as a function of his being “rushed” to the NHL. Sure, Bailey was rushed
onto a bad team, but no more rushed to a bad team than players like Jack
Eichel, Nathan MacKinnion, Connor McDavid, Jeff Skinner, Noah Hanifin, and
Anthony Beauvilier. Rushed just as young into the league as Taylor Hall. Which
I’ll mention shortly.
Kool Aid will say that you can’t harangue a man for his
history. People learn and change. Bailey has spent 12 years in the NHL. Surely
after the first 8 he got the hang of it! Because a 27 year old man was rushed…so
he can’t possibly overcome the current level of 18 year olds outperforming him!
Somehow, they weren’t rushed.
Or…maybe rush has to do with talent and ability?
Understand when we talk Bailey’s ability and hockey IQ, Rob
Schremp outperformed him in his time as an Islander.
So after this golden age- a decade into his career, a time
when he had seemingly ‘figured it out’- he had a 20% decline in his production.
And is on pace this year for another decline. And despite being coached by Hall
of Fame head coach Barry Trotz, on both November 7 2018 and November 7 2019,
Bailey was on a 31 goal pace for his season. Last year he ended with 16. This
season? I’ll take all the $20 bets that come in that Bailey ends the season
with less than 20 goals.
“BUT BAILEY SCORED AN OT WINNER AGAINST PITTSBURGH!” Yes, he
did. After Mathew Barzal deeked the entire state of Pennsylvania out of the
rink. I’m shocked Bailey didn’t miss that open net, quite frankly. Fucking Shane
Prince scored two goals in a playoff game once. Let’s give him a handy!
So to summarize my thesis. Josh Bailey is fucking useless. I
mentioned three players that we shall compare Bailey with. Two of these three
were not my creation but that of Islanders Kool Aid. But there is one entirely
is in my head.
Alexaner Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer I have seen
since Jaromir Jagr and Mike Bossy. It’s what he does. He is an elite, Hall of
Fame player. He is a champion.
And if I were Ovechkin and were being compared to Josh
Bailey? I’d shit in every moron’s mouth that said so. Shit right into their
brainless empty head. It wouldn’t matter, because they already have shit for
Ovechkin makes just about less than double Josh Bailey. His
statistics are just about less than double Josh Bailey over the last 4 years.
So point for point, they make pretty much even money.
Except in that time period, Ovechkin won a Stanley Cup. And took a team friendly deal to improve the squad. With the same head coach as Bailey. And has a fucking Hall of Fame career. And Ovechkin’s goals scored numbers over the last 4 years match just about the entire 12 year career of Josh Bailey. 300% more goals scored in that same 4 year span. Ovechkin has almost TWIC as many power play goals than Bailey has CAREER GOALS. Astronomical.
If Bailey is elite, Ovechkin is just about Bossy.
Then there’s Jordan Eberle. Drafted after Bailey, so clearly
fat fuck GM Garth Snowcone could have traded back a few more times and gotten a
player who almost always scored at least 20 goals, and has occasionally scored
30 goals. Two things Bailey has NEVER DONE. And get this- Eberle took a PAY CUT
to stay with the Islanders. A team friendly deal!
Waittttt….Bailey took a 180% pay raise to stay with the
team. Eberle took a 10% pay cut to stay with the team. Someone is a hero. I
give a fuck who. And if you compare dollars per goal, Eberle is the bargain.
But the last one I want to compare to is the best one.
Taylor Hall. Makes very similar money to Bailey despite winning a league MVP.
Hall generally scored 20-30 goals annually.
Hall is like a leveled up Bailey. Put up on average about
30% more points than Bailey does. In their best year put up about 30% more
points than Bailey does. Won an MVP. Took a moribund franchise back to the
And his ass got traded! But for what?
And here is why we see that Bailey is absolutely fucking useless.
NHL MVP Taylor Hall and half of his salary and a prospect were
traded for a first round draft pick, a conditional draft pick, a defensive
prospect, and two prospects that are so obscure that Hockeydb.com had no idea
who they were. Neither did hockeyreference.com and capfriendly.com. If a
prospect shits in the woods and no one smells it, is it a prospect?
Did I mention that the Devils allegedly paid half of Hall’s
So in case you missed it, a former league MVP was traded for
a prospect, two very low prospects, a 1st round draft pick, and a
floating pick. That’s a fucking awful haul for an MVP and an annual 20 and
occasional 30 goal scorer.
So, if that’s the haul?
How do you trade a useless player? What are you going to get?
That’s not the best question. The best question is what do
you give to get rid of an albatross that never lead a team to an important win?
That’s where Isles Kool Aid and Isles Realists differ. Isles
Kool Aid thinks every prospect is a superstar. They’re not. Almost none will even
register. 3 years ago those fuckups though Keifer Bellows was Patrick Kane.
Now? Kane wouldn’t even bother to rape him. Either Kane.
But say Bellows was a good prospect- which he’s not. We don’t
trade him because? Because a win now team cannot trade unproven prospects for
the help that can put them over the top today? Yeah nah. Many teams trade
prospects that are ok for better players. Look at how the Boston Bruins moved
Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton to keep a competitive team. But we need to
hang on to fucking Michael Dal Colle?
I like Michael Dal Colle as a human being. Great back story.
Can relate. But what the fuck is he doing in skates? Dude should work at Cock
Fil A. Moving slowly.
If all a former MVP gets is a scant prospect, 2 long shot
prospects, a 1st, and something else but only if you pay for him,
let me ask you this:
What does Josh Bailey draw from another team?
Based on Hall? At best, a 3rd and a conditional 3nd.
And here’s $2.5 million back on this mess. Which still fucks our cap, and gives
us nothing to help a win now roster. Because even in losing Bailey, Bailey
fucks us just like he has done since he’s been here. Bailey never wins, and currently
we have so little coattails now for anyone to notice him.
Pretty much, all of Bailey’s value lies in unloading his cap
hit. And based on Halls’ deal, the Islanders can’t even do that for a declining
coattail riding piece of shit player.
Bailey eats cap space without improving the team. Bailey is
untradeable because what the fuck does he do outside of being a negative and
never propelling his team to a win? No one has ever traded for Bailey except
Garth Snow who is a massive fuck up. No team ever leaked a Bailey rumor, except
maybe about his sexuality? That team? The Islanders.
Josh Bailey is untradeable. He is overpaid. All he does it hurt.
As I have empirically proven, Josh Bailey is NOWHERE near
elite. He’s not above average unless you cherry pick weirdly useless advanced
stats. However, he IS completely fucking useless. He can’t be traded for any
value. Nor does he create value for this team. All he has shown in his career
is an ability to fail, which is more of the same.
And that’s the problem. Baileys utter lack of utility makes
him untradeable. We’re stuck with him. As I predicted 2 years ago, he will end
his Islander career with more games played than any Islander ever. And that is
an indictment on how large a failure this organization has been. A team
spending 92% of the cap ceiling with fucking Leo Komorov and Josh Bailey as
catalysts to show for it. Stanley Cup? Meet Dixie Cup.
Josh Bailey is fucking useless.
You can respond in the comments or @JoshBarely on Twitter. It won’t make Bailey suck less.
Every now and then we have a writing contribution from our wonderful audience. This column is written by one of our fans, @AmazingInsights from Twitter. Enjoy! – Dan
Let’s get right to the point – If you think the Islanders are going to be anywhere NEAR 103 points this coming season, you really REALLY need to read this blog. Oh, before you do, may I suggest you first turn OFF your emotions, put down the #isleskoolaid and then consider these very real issues.
To appreciate what
happened last year, you had the following themes:
1. Lou became GM
and changed the mindset of the lockerroom
2. Trotz became
Coach and got a coaching staff with a clue
3. We had the
“eff John Tavares” Battle Cry
4. We had the
emotional feel good Lehner Story.
5. A number of
players were playing for Contracts
From where I sit, a LOT
of emotional energy across all those items is what truly drove this team.
But did you notice something after the sweep of the
Penguins? A week off and – to be honest – they lost the emotional
“mojo”. It really is a hard thing to turn
The 2019 Season
So far, I don’t think I haven’t raised anything that can be considered confrontational. But that’s about to change. Now it’s time to take an HONEST assessment of the team as it sits on August 26, 2019. No emotional thinking, no “isleskoolaid” logic (is that an oxymoron?) and no “I bleed Orange and Blue” nonsense. Just an honest assessment.
So first, you might want
to open this link in another tab, because you may want to have it as a handy
reference for the sections below:
A. And that would be – SCORING. For all intents and they are
bringing back the same team (more on this in a second). While there are
NO new impact players, we now have SEVERAL players who played well in their
contract years to get absurd over termed contracts. And if you
think Bailey is finally going to show up to score 20 this season, you might
want to put down the “Bailey Bahama Blue Koolaid”, because Bailey
hasn’t ONCE scored 20 in a season.
PowerPlay. You can argue that for the first time in AGES we have a
Powerplay coach with a pulse – or clue – with Jim Hiller. With
luck, Hiller can have the same effect that Mitch Korn did on our Goalies.
But lets NOT forget that the #isles have a “Hey we have two entire
minutes to pass the puck before we take a shot” mentality on the
Powerplay, so Hiller has his work cut out for him.
Both Lehner and Greiss
benefitted from the Mitch Korn the “Goalie Whisperer”.
The fact this duo won the Jennings Trophy speaks VOLUMES as to why last years
team got 103 Points.
Oh and a quick News
Flash !!! Lehner isn’t here anymore and we now get to see what magic can
be sprinkled on Varlamov. Oh, and Varlamov is a little older than
Lehner – and – has some injury history.
Let’s be honest.
There was a TON of emotional energy that was channeled last
year. So the “everyone thinks we will suck because JT isn’t
here” mantra is history – as is the “feel good” story around Lehner.
Here is hoping that
Trotz knows what buttons to push to get this team ready, but I think he
has a MUCH harder road this year. MUCH MUCH harder.
4. They aren’t
going to surprise anyone
The Islanders surprised
a lot of teams last year. I believe a LOT of this was emotionally
driven (ie JT) but it was also coaching that turned around the hellacious
Snow/Weight “coached” teams. Using the word coached when
it comes to Snow/Weight is insulting to even beer league coaches.
But now other teams know
the Islanders M.O. and as such they will have lost the “surprise”
element to their game
Check out ALL the ages
(notice a theme here) on the CapFriendly link, including our so called
“Top 6”. The NHL is now a “young man’s league” and
here come the Islanders with a number of key players 30 or older.
The Islanders suddenly
look .. shall we say .. O L D.
Lets NOT forget
Clutterbuck at 31 is coming off MAJOR back surgery. Keep repeating
that until it sinks in. Major Back Surgery. For those old
enough, remember what happened to Mo Vaughn after his injury. And
for those young enough, look no further than Robinson Cano. And
those guys play BASEBALL. Hockey is MUCH more physical.
And Varlamov – he is 30
as well. And he was hurt last year as well.
I don’t know many
players whose body becomes less immune to injury as they get older
I use this term to
describe a player who magically decides to show up in the contract year, gets a
large contract – and then returns to his normal output.
Be very worried about
the contracts given to Nelson and Lee. The biggest problem is the
term, because how long do you expect to get that production from either player.
Always fear the year after signing a contract, because the focus on
playing for the contract is now over.
7. The “4th
Remember what I said
about getting older and a physical game. The 4th line likes to
hit. The question here, what exactly can you expect from
Clutterbuck after surgery ?
I have focused on age a
lot in this entry. This really isn’t a young team, and it really
starts getting ugly 2 years from now (again go to Cap Friendly and start
adding 2 or 3 years to the players ages) Lou is going to have to
unload a LOT of people in the next few years – and QUICKLY
Lesson: The NHL is
a young man’s league.
9. Roster and Cap
While you are looking at
Cap Friendly, now look at the total the Islanders and spending this year.
Do you see any “elite” players? I sure don’t – yet we
don’t have a lot of room to sign an impact player.
This is why the Mitch Marner talk was absurd. Remember at the END
of this coming year you need to sign Barzal AND Pulock. That 7-8
million cap space is likely going to consumed by those 2
So where are you fitting
Marner? Which contracts were you getting rid of to get the
Keep repeating THAT AND
Analyzing it until reality sinks in
Oh, and a comical side
note. Look at all of the guaranteed contracts. Lets say
Josh HoSang plays “lights out” in camp – who is he going to
Trotz and the coaching
staff REALLY have their work cut out for them this season.
For those wondering
“where is Lou” – take a look at the current roster and ask yourself –
we are paying HOW MUCH for this lineup ? And Chiarelli is LONG
GONE. Which sucker .. er .. GM is going to take any of the players on the
islanders roster you would want to get rid of ?
So set your expectations accordingly for this season. I have the
feeling it’s going to be a long one.
If you’re a New York Islanders fan, you probably are thinking that the Islanders have taken a step backwards from last season. After all, they lost their Vezina nominated goalie in Robin Lehner, the super bottom 6 producer Valteri Flippula, and the free agency contest to sign Russian superstar Artemi Panarin. That’s not great, especially considering that after the team’s season ended in a sweep against Carolina, the biggest need identified by coach Barry Trotz was for more offense. He was rewarded with an offseason of less offense, which technically is offensive.
But really, what’s worse for the Islanders is the fact that, based on the way this team is constructed, they are currently in “Win Now” mode. I’ll explain how that conclusion was reached shortly, but here’s a hint- it starts at forward. Check the link below to see the nightmare that two GM’s have created at forward.
The New York Islanders currently sit at just under $7 million under the salary cap, with a restricted free agent deal awaiting 28 point scorer Anthony Beauvilier. This means they’ll end the offseason somewhere around $4-5 million under the cap. Feel free to name an impact player that gets paid $4 million dollars in today’s NHL to swoop in and save the season. I’ll wait.
This in itself is a problem. But it’s not the primary problem. As pointed out by my buddy @AmazingInsights, time is our primary problem. Let’s look at who has the longest life on their NHL contracts with the Islanders. Anders Lee tops the list in both time and money. Now look at the age column. Anders Lee is 29. And a player starts a decline at what age? About 30 (https://www.fatherly.com/health-science/why-athletic-performance-declines-with-age/)
Next longest contract? Our favorite Beth, Brock Nelson. Nelson checks in at 27, so he is in his elite period of experience and performance. That got him a deal that runs until he’s 33, well into a decline. And anyone watching Nelson play over the years knows Nelson had a “contract year” last season and should expect a decline back to his lollygagging, streaky playing, and generally ineptitude this upcoming season.
Up next? Jordan Eberle. Ebs will turn 30 this year, with 4 more years after on his deal. Time is not on his side, either.
These are three of your key forwards. Thus, why I say win now. But let me beat the point in further, for the #IslesKoolAid out there.
Next up for term? Andrew Ladd. Already 33, already DONE. But with 4 more years at $5.5 million dollars. Untradeable, unless you throw in something significant like a first and second round pick, or a valuable prospect and a first. A wasted roster spot for a player that used to be good and play physical, but whose style of play has ground him down by 31. A year and change older than Anders Lee is now.
Then we get to the Josh Bailey deal. A Garth Snow gift to his favorite son to try to convince Tavares to stay on the Island- like THAT would do it- we see that Bailey at his age 29 season has $5 million cap hit until he is 34. Also, Bailey himself had a few break downs last season. He was on a 30 goal pace in November, but barely finished with only 16. He also lost 15 points from his prior season, but that was when he was bounced off of the first line this year for playing like shit. If he’s not riding coattails again? Ge ready for 14-21- 35 to return. You know, Bailey’s average pre-Tavares line stats.
Players turning 30 this year? Eberle and Bailey. Ladd is already there. This is 5/6ths of your top 6. This is 3 of your key forwards at 30 or more in October. This is 35% of the salary cap. This is win now.
And why now? Easy. How many productive forwards on the
Islanders are under 28 (Nelson turns 28 in right after the season starts)?
Definitely one, arguably two. The arguable one is Beauvilier, who has averaged
19 goals a year in the NHL. No assists, but goals, which IS the more important
stat. Beau is due for a raise this year and will see a few million. But the
definite one? Mathew Barzal. Barzal is due a raise after the season. Think
he’ll get $5 million or more, considering what the RFA contracts of Connor
McDavid, William Nylander, Austin Matthews, and the rest of the new crop of
budding stars got paid?
What’s worse is the bottom six of the Islanders. Yes Matt Martin is in the final year of his deal and will give some cap relief based on what you should pay someone with that kind of production, but Leo Komorov is not. Nor is Cal Clutterbuck. Two more untradeable contracts without giving up assets, which is our next problem- where ARE the Islanders assets?
Generally, within 3-4 years of a draft, players emerge from
those drafts into the league. For top 10 picks? It can be weeks after a draft.
Let’s see how the Islanders have done in this range by looking at the 2015-2018
The 2015 draft has been productive for the Islanders. Well,
the first round anyway. Beauvilier made it to the NHL after one more season in
juniors, where Barzal needed two. So, within 2 years all of the first round
picks of the Islanders made the NHL. So that means the 2016 draft should have a
player entering their sophomore year, right?
Wrong. The 2016 NHL draft has produced ZERO NHL games played for the franchise. ZERO. The expectation would be Keifer Bellows having 80 or so NHL games under his belt. Nope. Zip. And Anton Golyshev seems to enjoy Russia, so that’s another shitball.
The 2017 draft? A whopping 22 games. All on defense.
The 2018 draft could be blossoming for the Islanders this year. Which is interesting because the Islanders will have 15 forwards and 7 defensemen already holding contracts. Some of those contracts are albatrosses and aren’t going anywhere, so those kids are generally dicked over. Like the fans. Or Cord’s neck. #DickedStraight
I’m going to stretch this analogy for three more years- the
2012, 2013 and 2014 drafts. What forwards came out of those drafts?
2012: Snow took 7 defensemen in that draft. You can argue that it was a deep draft for defensemen that year, which was true. You can argue that Griffin Reinhart got the pick that got them Mat Barzal. You can also argue that with the 4th overall pick, the Islanders could have had Filip Forsberg, who was the 3rd highest forward drafted that year, was available when the Isles picked Reinhart, and was the first forward taken after 3rd overall pick Alex Galchunyuk.
You can also argue that if Forsberg was an Islander, Tavares would also be an Islander today. You could argue that if Snow took Dumba or Trouba instead of Reinhart that Tavares would be an Islander today. You could argue that Snow isn’t an absolute fuck up and was an NHHL GM because no one else would accept that job after Neil Smith quit after a month WITHOUT BEING PAID, but that’s a losing argument.
2013: 84 games of Alan Quine. Fucked.
2014: Two first round picks, including a top 5. These guys have both burned their entry level deals while COMBINING for under 90 games played in the NHL. Worth about the same output thus far as Alan Quine. Michael Dal Colle is officially a bust. I said this to my buddy Kool Aid Rob a couple of years ago and he called me crazy. Which is why he is Kool Aid Rob. Josh Ho Sang is on a one year two way deal, meaning that his career as an Islander is over July 1, 2020.
And for shits and giggles, the 2011 draft? Three forwards made it, but only one played more than 11 games. Ryan Strome was the 5th overall choice in the draft, had one good season with the Islanders, and eventually acquired Jordan Eberle. So at least Strome did something useful. He left. Buh-bye!
If you’re keeping score, from 2011 through RIGHT NOW the Isles have produced one impact forward by trading a 4th overall, and used a 5th overall to acquire another impact forward. I’m going to leave out 2010 when we used a top 5 pick to obtain Cal Clutterbuck – an impacted forward- but I guess I just didn’t. From 2011 to today, the Isles have produced at most two useful forwards from their system, and one from another one. That’s over an eight year span. Which included two top 5 picks, a top 4 pick, and 11 first round draft pick overall. Eight years. That’s longer than many NHL careers.
This is also drearily worse than I realized. The drafting of Garth Snow can be summed up in one word- Asshole.
Even if you have hope for Keifer Bellows, 73% of that first round is already in the NHL including everyone with offensive talent. And if you’re counting on the vaunted 2018 Islanders draft? Which of those 15 contracts will the Islanders jettison for Oliver Whalstrom? And Otto Koivula? Will he be as effective as Brady Tkachuk or Andrei Svechnikov from that same draft? Because they’re already producing in the NHL. Probably because they have offensive talent. Didn’t Derek Brassard just take Koivula’s job?
I’m going to give Simon Holmstrom a pass, because he’s at least a year away from the NHL. Which just compounds the lack of assets issue and reinforces the point of the win now mentality of this club, as its at least another year before a prospect is ready to help a win now team.
At least the defense is in good shape…kind of. Feel free to click on the link and go to the defense section.
The Islanders have 4 useful defenders under 28. But again,
the salary cap nightmare rears it’s ugly head. After this season, Devon Toews
and Ryan Pulock also need contracts. Those are definitely needs. But look at
that top three, paywise. One guy under 30, Nick Leddy, but his deal will carry
him right into his decline as it ends when he’s 31. The other two? Oh boy.
Thomas Hickey is on the wrong side of 30, and has 3 years to go on this deal- all what our science article would call a decline era. And Johnny Boychuk is already in decline yet has the highest paid contract on defense that lasts until he’s 38. Another unmovable contract…but at least you can ask for that 8 team list that you can try to send him to, as his absurd “no movement clause” is done.
The Islanders do have a defensive asset ready to step in, and with 4 younger defensemen it will make a solid core. Except…there’s 7 defensemen presently under contract, and the two with short terms are going to be resigned. What raise do you think Pulock will get? Toews? Because that’s cap space, too.
So who with a long term guaranteed contract sits down for
When the season gets rolling, the Islanders with the addition of Brassard will have 10 of 24 players on the squad including both goalies at or older than 30. They will have 3 more guys the season after turning 30. They will be a cap max team. And as we’ve seen no trades in the last almost 14 months (!), we can not assume help is coming. Besides, we have no young forward assets to offer in a trade, no one is taking many of these bad contracts written by the last and present GM’s, and where the team needs the most help? There are contracts cemented for 5/6’s of the top 6.
I wanted to remind you all here that the Islanders also do not have a single elite player. What team has won a Stanley Cup in the last 15 years without an elite player? They don’t have an elite player in their system, either. If they offer sheet Mitch Marner or Patrik Laine? Neither of those guys are elite players. Marner’s averaging 23 goals a season on his career, though to be fair it has increased every year. Laine has one dimension, although it is the best one to have, but 30 goals last season on a good team and he was still -24? Not elite.
Mathew Barzal? Not elite. Not even a top 20?
All of those long term deals, lack of prospects at forward, and complete lack of elite players tell us one thing: the Islanders are a defensive minded, win now team. Just without the horses to win now. The Drive for Five? It’ll have to wait another generation.
EDIT: The Islanders just signed Derek Brassard. 14 goals last year. Wrong side of 30. But this is a win now team, so I’m sure that’s the missing piece to the cup!
Lou Lamiorello is a Hall of Fame NHL executive. But what would make me, a lifelong Islanders
fan, happy about having Lou? First off, I’m not a guy who has an affinity for
the Devils, or the Maple Leafs, or the douchebag Rangers, or any other team in
a sport that frankly hasn’t figured out how to monetize itself save for 3
cities geographically. I do however care about my local team. And in looking at
my local team with a legend GM after 2 drafts, 2 free agency periods, and one
trade deadline, my concern is that this is still a roster created by Garth Snow.
And Garth Snow was an absolute fuck up.
You’re probably going to say something like “Well, Lou
offered Snakeface and Breadman the highest contracts of any team involved in
bidding.” Yes, yes he did. So why did they both say no? My guess is Lou.
There was a time in history when Lou Lamoriello was maybe
the best GM in the entire league. His drafting with the Devils was legendary. The
results? 5 finals, 3 cups. That’s an average of a cup victory a decade, and
almost 2 finals a decade. Solid shit.
After the Devils was an interesting time for Lou. When the
Devils forced Lou out after a mediocre run? The Toronto Maple Leafs snapped him
up. But more to be the man to restructure an organization. They surrounded him
with talent to make decisions on all levels, from coaching to draft to
scouting. And Lou made sure everyone was handsomely paid.
So what did Toronto do under Lou? They built an exciting
team that won absolutely nothing. In return Toronto let Lou seek other pastures.
Lou Lamoriello contains the wisdom of a 50 year career in a sport. I have to give him credit for breaking into Russia and bringing championship players like Slava Fetisov to the NHL that would have never seen NHL ice. He single handedly expanded the sport, and deserves recognition for players like Pavel Datsyuk or Pavel Bure or Vagina Malkin playing in the NHL. That’s all Lou.
But that bravado? Does it translate to today? Nope.
The NHLPA has gotten smarter and better under Donald Fehr.
That dude is a genius, flat out. Every time he gets involved in a sport,
players get rich. Look at Major League Baseball. Their minimum wage is 35000%
higher than actual minimum wage. I don’t know about you, but I’d love a 35000% raise.
Hockey players are starting to have those expectations, and are winning at it,
as evidenced by all of the absurd restricted free agent contracts being thrown
around the NHL to 20 year olds.
But Lou? Look at his last few years with the Devils. With
the exception of that last cup run on the back of Martin Brodeur, the Devils
record on everything was unimpressive. They lost Zach Parise. They gave Ilya
Kovalchuk an absurd deal that…the Devils have been paying that since 2010 are still
paying for it until 2025. Who the fuck is stupid enough to give a 15 year deal?
Oh…right. Garth Snow.
So there’s history. And yes, I am flying past the reliving
of, but really, if we needed to, we can say this- Martin Brodeur and Scott
Stevens and Scott Neidermeyer and Ken Danyko meant no one scored against the
Devils. The punch on offense? Bobby Holik? Shit, Jason Arnott was a Devils
hero. Jason Arnott. That’s a guy you build a team around, amirite?
But I’m losing focus. Let me focus on what Lou Lamoriello
has done as the GM of the Islanders.
He could not retain John Tavares. He could not attract
Artemi Panarin. He offered both of these turds the most money anyone could have
offered them. The response? Fuck Lou. I have to shave? Cut my hair? Dude, I’m a
multimillionaire. Eat a bag of dicks.
And scarily, there was NO plan B.
Consider this: fans of Lou have said that the Islanders won
the 2018 draft. Nice. How many NHL games have those players won? How many
overpaid veterans were traded away to make room for the scary talent of 2018’s
draft? That 2018 draft talk reminds me of the 2008 draft that everyone said
Garth Snow won. What exactly did Garth win with that draft? Fuck it- HANG THE
Historically Lou has had some choice drafts, although he
does reach a bit just like another ass clown for players he likes despite “best
player available” status. So let me ask you this- is anyone saying that the
Islanders won the 2019 draft? No. Maybe because history has shown that Lou has
shanked the equivalent of about 13 entire professional drafts?
Outside of drafting, look at the players that Lou has
brought into the Islanders. This would be a clue as to what the GM values. So who
does Lou respect? You’d expect guys with
good hands and offensive upside. Nah nah yeah nah. It’s players with no
creativity. Grunts, not scorers. Matt Martin. Leo Komorov. Tom Khunackle. I’m
sure I spelled that wrong, but I also don’t care. Where’s the talent? And don’t
say Valeri Flipula. That was an outlier season for him. And he’s not here.
Neither is Robin Lehner. Seems Lou still values 80’s and 90’s hockey today,
when the game itself does not.
So, back to a previous thought – who has Lou signed over 2
free agent periods? Who has he acquired for a 103 point team at a trade
deadline? Who has he acquired that’s worth a shit via trade? Yes, there was the
story about Max Pacioretty that was scuttled because Lou had some good first
round picks. So where are those picks? The NHL is a young mans league. 19 year
olds are common. Dobson? Whalstrom? Bellows? Hello?? Is the old man asleep at
work? Has Garth Snow rubbed off on him?
Then there’s the Mitch Marner offer sheet rumor. The money
involved would cause the Islanders to lose 4 1st round picks. OK.
It’s not like the Islanders have used first round picks well. Still, after the
raises to bring back the same team in a tougher conference, there will be no
offer sheets. The Maple Leafs cap manager is fully operational, so Mitch Marner
has no chance to become an Islander. And I’mnot positive Lou knows what an
offer sheet even is.
But say there was. What if the Islanders were going to offer
Mitch Marner a contract that cost them 4 1st round picks? Were there
Brayden Point is a top notch offensive player. He made $900,000 last season. Where was the $5m offer sheet? Which would screw over Tampa Bay’s salary structure? And cost the Isles a 2nd and a 3rd?
Patrick Laine? He’s like Anders Lee but with speed. Kyle Conner. Matthew Tkachuk. All players who score and are available if you want to burn off 4 first rounders. Oh, and move someone or someones from the roster to create the cap space for them.
But lets’ talk about the value of 4 first round draft picks.
What if we used them differently?
Two of the picks you were willing to burn on Marner? Use one
to send Andrew Ladd and his albatross contract to anyone that wants a first.
That’s it. Use another to move Johnny Boychuk somewhere to play out his days. The
picks we traded for him have served Boston just as well if not better than
Boychuk has served the Islanders. That saves you two first rounders and creates
a lot of cap space. Then you can use the other two to acquire someone to help
the team. Look at what the Devils sent to Vegas for Gusev- a 2nd and
a 3rd. So two firsts will get you a seriously solid player. Rich Nash
in his prime didn’t get two firsts from the Rangers.
To many moving parts? Lets simplify. Call the Chicago
Blackhawks and offer your next 3 1sts and Andrew Ladd for Patrick Kane. You
know, a leader with cup experience and a crazy but not unreasonable contract.
But hey, Lou knows better. Because his last title was almost
2 decades ago. Lou-sing.
For the record, I am not a fan of offer sheets unless those
sheets are reasonable. What is reasonable? Tactical. For instance, Mitch
Marner. I would have offered him $10 million dollars a year. The draft pick
compensation would have been negligible (two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd),
but if Toronto matched? They have half of their entire cap invested in 4 guys.
Consider this- to draft a Marner would have required a 1st round pick. So is Mitch Marner worth a
1st, 2nd, 3d? Yes, yes he is. But offer sheets…get
matched? So we don’t try?
The Montreal Canadiens offer sheeted and failed at Sebastian
Aho. Carolina easily matched. Kudos to Montreal for thinking outside of the
box. This one time. But Carolina was able to match because of payroll
flexibility. Which is something a team with Josh Bailey and Andrew Ladd making
13% of the cap just does not have.
Aslo, we have Mat Barzal coming up to be in a position for
an offer sheet. Who do we need to move to secure Barzal’s future as an
Islander? Nick Leddy can sure use a new home. Johnny Boychuk’s contract is now
officially bad. As is Cal Clutterbuck. But the best value to trade?
Josh Bailey. Why? Josh Baileys career 14 goal average can be moved because he’s a recent all star. And of course Bailey would acquire 4 first round draft picks, right? Nah. Besides, 15 goal scorers do not earn $5 million dollars per season. Not yet, anyway. So you’d probably have to package him with a pick to get something back, like a prospect or a 2nd round pick. Still, its removing useless cap space so it’s a good value.
So why are players who are getting mega offers from Lou saying
no? That’s because Lou is a grandpa. Grandpa loves the kids, but in his heart
he wishes those kids were as World War Two ready as he was. Except there’s
never going to be another World War Two, despite creating a roster like it’s
Does Lou communicate with younger players? Let’s look at
Robin Lehner. First off, Lehner was a value signing 12 months ago. Then he
somehow became an issue. If you ask Lehner, the Islanders sandbagged him. If
you read Lehner’s quotes, he was completely full of shit about wanting to play
on Long Island. And yes, it is ON Long Island. But he still turned down a guy
he was praising in public all season. Lou lost the young man, because Lou has
grown out of touch.
Lou’s touch with communicating with youth is that he expects players to conform. Players do not live in the age of conform. They live in the age of pampered babies. Whereas Lou is old school and older retired athletes and present coaches respect him, younger players are placated and spoiled. The Russians that Lou worked with came from an authoritarian regime. Shaving facial hair was the least of their worries. Now? The KHL has enough allure that Russians don’t feel a need to come here for fame. Look at the Islanders- Sorokin issue. Sorokin came here for a training camp, looked at Garth Snow, and realized that anything in Russia was more professional than that. This includes both Russian whorehouses and mail order bride organizations.
This may sound mean, but this is realistic- when a player asks Lou what the long term goal of the organization is, they realize they’re asking a guy that is 76 and in a high stress job. He may not outlive the current season, never mind a long term plan.
So how do we solve this mess? It’s time to make Lou what he
excels at- an organizer. Lou needs to have his role solely as team president.
He needs to add a GM to the mix, just like Toronto had oversight for Lou. Let
Lou acquire coaches and scouts and whatnot. But it’s time for the players to
hear a different voice. One that can convince a player to come to this
organization out of any reason that’s not desperation. One that can make a trade
(it’s been over a year if you’re keeping track). One that can communicate to
the modern athlete.
Until then? It’s like Garth Snow is still in charge. And if it feels like that to fans, imagine how that feels to talent. Even with a 22nd century arena, it’ll still be a team run in the 1980’s. Until the Islanders solve the GM issue- and it is now officially an issue- they’re going to be seen as a reflection of their GM: swinging and missing at the stars and the playoffs. A bunch of Lou-sers.
Last September 6 (that was 2018, before the hockey season started, I wrote the following on our old website. Apparently it may have been read by an NHL GM, who gave it some thought. Enjoy!
What to do with Jordan Eberle and Anders Lee?
Fans of this blog- go ahead, there are one or two out there,
you can admit it- know that for the most part this blog runs in the following
State a problem
Explain cause of problem
Explain how others handled similar situations
Discuss potential solutions
Use case studies, histories, and current trends to
come to a research based conclusion instead of scream like some ignorant
Well folks, this is no exception. If you read the last blog
entry about what it would take to trade for a star player (note: not much) then
you have to come to the conclusion that you aren’t going to get a whole hell of
a lot of you trade Jordan Eberle and or Anders Lee.
Think I’m crazy? What did the Islanders trade to acquire
Eberle? Ryan Strome, a 3rd line center with one outlying career
year. This was a STRAIGHT UP trade. No picks, no prospects, no other players.
So what do you think the Islanders would get for the same guy on an expiring
contract looking for a raise from his current $6 million salary?
Best hope- a pick and a prospect, or two picks. Anything
north of that is a steal.
So this presents you with the following dilemma- what do you
do with a Jordan Eberle? Do you trade him for the above mentioned package? Pay
him the aforementioned raise? Or do you ride out his season and head off into
the sunset for nothing like John Tavares just did a few weeks ago?
This is not an enviable position to be in. Eberle is a solid
second line wing who helped with the learning curve of Mathew Barzal. Eberle
most certainly has value to the team. He’s also a productive offensive player
likely to score 25 goals and 30 assists on an average year.
But that’s not what makes this an unenviable position to be
in. Every team has to make choices on players. No, what makes this particularly
bad is that the Islanders have a first line wing in the same situation, that of
40 goal scorer Anders Lee. Some would say that Lee is a product of Tavares,
having put up 76 goals in two seasons with Tavares after putting up 40 goals in
the prior two seasons without him.
This situation boils down to the following concept: Islander
fans might have a span of 366 days where the Islanders lose three of their top
six forwards for nothing. Stuff like that cripples’ teams for years.
So what do we root for to happen, as fans? Well, you have
the following scenarios:
Pay both of them
Ride out the season
Let’s explore the pros and cons of all of these options.
Pay both of them
Pro: They stay with the team for the rest of their effective
Con: At least $15 million in combined salary cap hit. Roster
inflexibility. Untradable contracts. Keeping younger players with potentially
greater talent in lesser roles because you can’t give a 4th liner $8
million. Not even Garth Snow was that stupid.
This is the fan favorite option as we always love our own.
But it’s also the one that would eat up at present 3/16th of the
salary cap. Leddy, Ladd, Bailey and Boychuk make up another 4/16th of
the cap. The 4th line makes up another 2/16th of the cap.
9 players, 9/16th of the cap. That’s on pace for a 16 player team,
which probably won’t turn out so well.
Also, this will keep you not only from importing any skill
players, but it will force you to choose which of the emerging players to pay
from the likes of Anthony Beauvilier, Mathew Barzal, Ryan Pulock, Noah Dobson,
etc. A talent ceiling, which is also never a good thing for a team.
Pros: Remove a slow skater from an always getting faster
league from the lineup. Plus there are questions whether or not Lee was a
product of Tavares and if he can repeat his prior successes. Also, you’re
saving somewhere between $7-8 million that can be used to address other areas.
And then of course you’re acquiring a lesser player, a draft pick, and a
prospect in a trade now, or a little less at the deadline.
Con: I like Anders Lee. He seems like a great teammate, a
stand up guy, and has made a career of grabbing those garbage goals that can be
a difference maker when you’re in the playoffs. You would not get equal
statistical value for 2016-2018 Lee…but if you act now you may get something
similar statistically to 2014-2016 Lee at a lower price tag.
Pro: Save $7 million plus on a guy that is a 25 goal 58
point guy no matter who he plays with. Since Snow brought Eberle here
specifically to play with Tavares (just like Ladd!), his time is up. Plus a 25
goal scorer should net you two picks in the top 30 of a draft, which may be
nice as the Islanders transition from the team of Tavares to the team of
Con: He scores 25 goals and 58 points no matter who he plays
with. If Barzal slots in at 1C and they give him Lee and Beauvilier or Bellows
of Whalstrom or whomever at wing, Eberle will still score 25 goals and get 58
points on line two. This may help stave off the inevitable statistical decline
of Josh Bailey just a little bit, which makes Bailey fans happy. Those fans are
overlooking the Bailey production hypothesis that says when Bailey is
productive the team isn’t winning. He also has clear chemistry with Barzal and
Beauvilier, although that can change year to year as players evolve.
Ride out the season
Pro: You get to see what Lee and Eberle do with a real head
coach, something neither of them have had in their career. Yes, it’s a
defensive minded coach so their offensive stats will inevitably suffer, but
they’ll still show a glimpse of what the Islanders will look like in the future
if all of the prospects develop as they’re expected.
Con: The scariest of all scenarios. Lose the players for
absolutely nothing. Not as impactful as the rejection by John Tavares, but
maybe more impactful in the overall standings.
If these are the options, which choice would you make? I’ve
already made mine.
I trade Anders Lee. Lee’s skillset will make him injury
prone as a contract unwinds. Also, his lack of foot speed will become a greater
detriment as time goes on.
What would I seek for Lee? A 1st round pick and a
legitimate NHL defenseman- think 3rd or 4th defenseman.
If you package Lee with one of our middling defensemen maybe that 40 goal
veneer gets you a #2 defenseman. Maybe. But if Lee could get you Mattias Ekholm
and a 1st from Nashville would you say no? Not me. I may make that move for just Ekholm.
Why not trade Eberle? His raise won’t be as dramatic, so it
will have less of an impact as the $8 million a 40 goal scorer would command.
Eberle also seems better equipped to move from line to line and still play his
game, whereas Lee sees lesser production with lesser centers. Also, if Barzal
is going to be a first line center, we’re going to see if his two linemates can
also step up against the best defenses in the NHL.
Now, there are factors that can change my mind. What if Lee
is willing to sign a deal similar to Josh Baileys- 6 years at $5 million? Or
even 5 years at $6 million? That would be something that would make things
interesting. Or what if Eberle pulls a Boogie Cousins and takes a pay cut so he
can pick his team?
Or what if Carolina offers the Islanders Sebastian Aho for
Eberle? How can you pass up the Aho to Aho potential! Alas, Aho is much younger
with similar offensive statistics and at a much smaller cap hit. And based on
the research I’ve done, trades like that just don’t happen.
So as we approach training camp, the countdown to two major
decisions begins. As will the constant questions and distractions about
negotiating a contract in season, about two sides in communication with each
other, and about what to do at a trade deadline with a UFA. Just like last
season, or as we often say around here, more of the same.
So far, here’s some on the money predictions from last September:
Lee cam nowhere near 40 goals without Johnny Snake,
The Islanders took my advice and resigned Eberle. My mistake was that he took a DISCOUNT to stay.
The field of players with Lee’s history are earning between $7 to $9 million per season. My prediction was that Lee would seek $8 million.
I overestimated Eberle’s stats, mainly because Barry Trotz plays a more defensive minded system and Eberle actually adapted his game for it which I didn’t expect to happen. Eberle did find his offense against Pittsburgh in the playoffs and was lethal.
I called Lee slow. Anyone watching the Islanders playoff run could not validly disagree. One empty net goal in eight playoff games? Yikes.
On the verge of NHL free agency, that’s all I have Islander-wise for now. Hope you all watch the NHL Entry Draft tonight and enjoy the speculation as to what the Islanders are going to do. Rumor has it that there’s a trade or two in the works…
Here’s why April is the greatest month in sports. I know
there is no NFL in the month of April, but look at all the other sports going
on. First off, right from the start of April, it’s Opening Day for baseball.
Second, the first Sunday in April, the Road to Wrestlemania has finally. Then
the exact next day after Wresltemania, you have the March Madness finals. After
that, the following weekend will be The Masters. Then, while all that’s going
on, you’ll have the NBA and NHL going on throughout April. Finally, at the end
of the month, you’ll have your taste of the NFL season with the NFL Draft.
Plus, how could I forget, all the UFC fights that’ll happen.
Think about it. This is a month we’ll see Mike Trout,
Rory McIlroy, Seth Rollins, Zion Williamson, Sidney Crosbey, and Roger Goodell
getting boo’d, in action all in this one month. You literally couldn’t ask for
anything better. I don’t know about you, but I can’t wait for April.