This is the second part of the two-part series where the greatness of Clayton Kershaw will be discussed. Now we have already determined that he is the greatest active pitcher in the regular season. He is atop many statistical lists including Earned Run Average and ERA+, which is park adjusted earned run average, amongst active players. He did this by throwing a four pitch mix highlighted by his knee bending curveball and wipeout slider. Many people who watched him believed he could throw a no-hitter any night. With an MVP award and three Cy Young awards, he raised expectations to a level only he could reach.

Now when talking about Clayton Kershaw’s greatness many people like to discuss his October numbers. He has a career 4.43 ERA in the postseason in 32 games pitched with 25 starts and 158.1 innings. That is a large sample size over many seasons. Now another problem is he gets worse as he goes deeper into the postseason. Now while fatigue is most certainly a factor, his 5.40 era in 26 World Series innings is very concerning. It is a very strange occurrence since during the regular season he is one of the most unhittable pitchers in baseball from start to finish. One factor that may also be influencing these postseason numbers could be that he has been forced to pitch on short rest a total of ten times in the postseason. It has been historically known that the Dodgers in recent history have not trusted their bullpen and depth starters in the postseason. Instead they have used Kershaw on short rest to pitch important postseason innings which have hurt his numbers. When comparing him to all-time greats Kershaw’s postseason ERA is over three full runs higher than Sandy Koufax’s and almost a full run higher than Pedro Martinez’s. Kershaw’s inability to pitch well when the lights shine the brightest versus other pitchers ability to win big games is what lowers Kershaw’s status for me. Yes, pitchers were built differently once upon a time, but Koufax pitched complete games in both game 5 and 7 in the 1965 World Series. He did this on just three days rest. Now it is hard to compare pitchers of different Eras, but Koufax put together 6 seasons unlike anything we have ever seen in baseball and while Kershaw may have better stats then Koufax during the regular season, Koufax’s ability to dominate in the postseason those years as well puts him above Kershaw in my eyes and many other peoples. I will agree Kershaw may be the greatest regular season pitcher ever but when postseason numbers are put into play Sandy Koufax, Walter Johnsons and others pass him on the list. The greatest pitcher ever has to be able to pitch in every situation and produce at least adequate stats regardless of circumstance. Now that back injuries have crept in on Kershaw in the back half of his career, Kershaw will need to make October success happen otherwise he will continue to fall just short of being the greatest pitcher of all time.

This is part one of a two-part series where the greatness of Clayton Kershaw will be discussed. It can be argued that in 2020 Clayton Kershaw is as just well-known for his October failures as he is for being the best pitcher in baseball since 2009. Clayton Kershaw has tried to expel his October demons multiple times but is yet to do so successfully. Clayton Kershaw was drafted seventh overall in the 2006 MLB draft. He was joined in this draft by other star pitchers, Max Scherzer and Tim Lincecum. However, there were only two all-stars picked ahead of Kershaw in the draft, Evan Longoria, the Rays franchise player for the better part of nine seasons and Andrew miller who after having an unsuccessful start to his career as a starter, moved to the bullpen and resurrected his career. Now both Miller and Longoria have had high peaks and are very solid players, but Clayton Kershaw is in another class. Some would argue Max Scherzer may be in this class with him. While Max Scherzer has had a phenomenal, hall of fame career, other people believe Kershaw should only be compared to the likes of all-time greats such as Walter Johnson and Sandy Koufax.

Some may be wondering how Kershaw can be compared to those two all-time greats without a good October track record. The main reason lies in two stats. With his 2.441 ERA he currently sits 37th all time amongst pitchers with at least 1000 innings pitched or 100 decisions in their careers. This includes relievers such as Mariano Rivera and pinchers who pitched their entire careers in the 1800s such as Will White, when run scoring was more than twice as low as it is today. Also, on that list are legends such as Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson and even Babe Ruth with his 2.277 ERA. Lastly the next active pitcher on that list is Jacob DeGrom who has a 2.622 Era and is 60th all time. While Jacob DeGrom does have back to back CY Young awards and is arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now Kershaw has thrown more than double the amount of innings deGrom has and still has an ERA that is .18 runs lower.

Now ERA is not the only statistic that matters but as you can see Kershaw is in some very elite company already. Some people prefer stats such as Fielding Independent Pitching which attempts to take away the impact of luck and the impact of other people on a pitcher’s stats. It does this by only focusing on what a pitcher can control, strikeouts, walks and home runs. Kershaw ranks 57th all time on that list with a 2.740 FIP while DeGrom is again the next highest active player at 66th with a 2.782 FIP. Now while that may not seem like much of a difference, Kershaw has done it in over twice as many innings and only 5 active pitchers are in the top 150 in FIP all time. To put Kershaw’s FIP into a historic perspective, Steve Carlton is one of the best left-handed pitchers of all time and he is 190th in FIP all the way at 3.153. While that may not seem like there is a huge difference either from Kershaw, and it really is not, it shows that there is a significant difference between Kershaw and DeGrom’s dominance especially considering the innings each has pitched up to this point in their respective careers. Lastly Clayton Kershaw has the highest adjusted ERA+ of all time. For some of you who do not know the newer stats as well, adjusted ERA+ adjusts a pitchers ERA to their ball park and to the pitcher’s league. This allows us to compare pitchers who had different home parks and pitched in different eras more accurately. Mariano Rivera has the highest ERA+ of all time at 205. Kershaw has an ERA+ of 157 and is second all time. Pedro Martinez is third all time in this stat at 154. Walter Johnson has an ERA+ of 147.No matter which stats you use during the regular season Clayton Kershaw is one of the best pitchers ever. Personally, I believe that if you are looking to crown who is the best pitcher ever it will depend on what stats you weigh most heavily. Some people may prefer ERA+ because it takes the era and ball park a pitcher pitched in into effect. Some people may prefer FIP because it only uses walks homeruns and strikeouts, all outcomes that a pitcher controls entirely on their own. However, does not allow a person to see how well a pitcher used their defense. For example, a groundball pitcher such as Dallas Keuchel may allow more contact than other pitchers but if all the contact is groundballs to the infield he should still be rewarded for being able to get batters out. Well some people may say if you put a bad defense behind him they may not be able to make all the plays for him while a pitcher who doesn’t give up as much contact doesn’t need as good a defense behind him. Kershaw is historically great no matter what statistic you use and is far beyond his current contemporaries. Many people will say that Roy Halladay was the best pitcher in baseball before Kershaw claimed the title from him in 2012. Some may even argue he had the title before then all the way back in 2009. Kershaw however has a career that is far beyond what Roy Halladay was ever able to accomplish and Halladay is even in the Hall of Fame. While Kershaw has accomplished incredible things he still has a historically bad October resume which will need to be analyzed further.

This is part two of a series where I am going to give my opinion on which MLB draft’s top 10 players have higher potential. Picks numbered 6-10 are as follows:

The number six pick in the 2019 MLB draft was CJ Abrams. He is a shortstop with a fantastic hit tool drafted by the San Diego Padres. While the San Diego Padres have a shortstop named Fernando Tatis Jr., he may or may not be able to stay at the position long term due to defensive deficiencies. While Abrams may never win a gold glove he may be a better answer at the shortstop position long term. Regardless of where he ends up, his bat, which allowed him to hit .393 across two levels during his first season of pro ball, will play anywhere. What further allows him to have the potential of a dynamic leadoff hitter in the future is his top of the scale speed which is ranked an 80 on the 20-80 scale. The number six pick in the 2018 MLB draft was Jarred Kelenic. He is a five-tool monster who has a career minor league OPS of .882 in just two minor league seasons, with 29 homeruns and 35 steals. He may end up being the best player in the 2018 draft as he came in to the draft regarded as the best high school hitter and has further honed his skills as he has moved up the minor league ladder. Already in double A at just age 20 he may be knocking on the MLB door as early as 2020. While Abrams may one day be one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball, Jarred Kelenic is a true five tool superstar who seemingly gets better every day. While the Mets will regret trading him for a very long time the Mariners look like they have their next franchise player who could be up as early as this year.

The number seven pick in the 2019 MLB draft was the first pitcher taken in the draft, Nick Lodollo. He is a tall lefty at 6’6’’ out of Texas Christian University. He has three above average pitches and has shown an ability to command each one. He still has some projection left in his frame and he pitched very well despite only throwing eighteen and a third innings. He looks like he will move quickly and will be a main stay in a big-league rotation for a long time. The number seven overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft was Ryan Weathers of the San Diego Padres out of Loretto High School. He is another lefty pitcher who is currently the number nine prospect in a deep San Diego farm system. Weathers is the son of former MLB Picher David Weathers and while he does have four solid pitch’s he lacks a true out pitch. Weather struggled in the second half of his first minor league season, but he looks like he will fit nicely in to the middle of a big-league rotation. While both these pitchers offer fairly high floors I believe Lodollo’s slightly better stuff, out of his tall frame, allows for a bit more potnetial moving forward. While Weathers could end up being a three or a four starter in a big-league rotation I see Lodollo more as a two or a three and give him the slight edge here.

The number eight pick in the 2019 MLB draft was Josh Jung a third Baseman out of Texas Tech University. He is regarded as a polished hitter and despite questions about his future power potential he has shown reliable hands and a strong arm at the hot corner. His power may ultimately determine his celling, but he may have the potential to hit as many as twenty-five or more homeruns to go along with his other sound tools. The eighth overall pick in 2018 was Carter Stewart who ultimately did not sign with the Atlanta braves after they drafted him. He threw 96-97 MPH when he was drafted and had a power curve that was regarded as one of the best breaking balls in the draft. Stewart had suffered a wrist injury and the Braves offered him a a signing bonus below slot value after the draft and he chose not to sign. He then enrolled at Eastern Florida State College for the next season and threw 13 starts with a 1.70 ERA. He then decided to sign a six-year deal to play in Japan with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks of Nippon Professional baseball. Now we have no idea if we will ever see Carter Stewart on the mound for an MLB team and as a result Josh Jung is the player I would rather have going forward. Now Carter Stewart may have made this interesting if he had continued putting up strong college numbers and reentered the MLB draft at some point.

The number nine overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft was catcher Shea Langeliers out of Baylor University. Langeliers has always been a world class defender He also has plus raw power that he has to hit consistently to tap into moving forward. With a floor as a defensive minded starter or backup, if he hits consistently he could be one of the better all-around catchers in baseball. The ninth overall pick in the 2018 draft was Kyler Murray. People now know Murray for his football exploits as he decided to go back to college to play football after being drafted by the Atheletics and chose to continue on a path towards professional football. He was then the first overall pick of the Arizona Cardinals and was the 2019 Offensive Rookie of the year in the NFL. While Murray was a raw baseball player coming out of college due to him splitting time between football and baseball he was an exceptional athlete. Now that doesn’t always translate well into being a great baseball player, as there are many stories of great athlete such as Bubba Starling and Lewis Brinson who have not lived up to the potential many saw in them at the draft. Shea Langeliers is the player I would choose out of the two and if Murray had reached his MLB ceiling he may be the pick but Langeliers has such a high floor and the potential for so much more that he is the right choice either way here.

Lastly the number 10 pick in the 2019 MLB draft was Hunter Bishop selected by the San Fransisco Giants. He is a toolsy outfielder out of Arizona State. He has tremendous raw power but there is also some swing and miss to his game. He was inconsistent throughout his career up until his junior year of college. He also has the speed to play center field and be a threat on the base paths. In his small sample after being selected he only hit .229 but had a .438 on base percentage. Those are two numbers that usually do not align in that way, but Bishop walked almost as much as he struck out. While his potential will depend on how well he hits going forward he has the tools to be a dynamic player should everything come together even if there is still swing and miss in his game. The tenth pick in the 2018 draft was another toolsy college hitter out of South Alabama named Travis Swaggerty. While all his tools rate as a 50 or better on the 20-80 scale he has only hit .257 so far in the minors with 14 homeruns in 173 games played. He is similar to Bishop in that his ability to make contract will determine his ceiling, but he has the speed to play center and be a threat on the base paths. He did perform better in the second half of 2019 after some adjustments as well. While both hitters scouting reports are very similar Bishop is rated as a 55 overall compared to Swaggerty as a 50 overall on MLB.com. I give the slight edge to Bishop here since he is younger, and his eye was so good immediately upon entering pro ball. Both these players have similar ceilings and floors and it will be interesting to see if either or both can figure out what adjustments are necessary for them to make the big leagues.

Now I have looked at the top ten overall picks in the 2018 and 2019 MLB drafts. As of right now I give the slight edge to the 2019 draft. While the 2018 draft has the best pitcher in Mize and the best positon player in Kelenic, having lost Kyler Murray to football and Carter Stewart to Japan has hurt this draft. Even if I was to put both of them back in the 2019 draft still is a little better as Carter Stewart has never faced professional hitters and Kyler Murray was a very raw prospect and we do not know how his development would go. The top of the 2018 draft could be historic with the top 5 picks all looking like all stars and or MVP candidates the 2019 draft however has really good to all star players and maybe even some MVP candidates throughout its first ten picks. Now all stars and MVP candidate can come from all round and the rest of the first rounds could even change this going forward. Where I stand today may not be where I stand even a year from now but that is the fun of reflecting on the past, living in the now and dreaming about the future.

This is part one of a series where I am going to give my opinion on which MLB draft’s top 10 players have higher potential. We will start with the 2018 and 2019 MLB drafts. Here is picks number 1-5:

The first overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft was catcher Adley Rutschman. He was considered by many to be the most hyped baseball prospect since Bryce Harper heading into the draft. The Baltimore Orioles selected him out of Oregon State. Over his three collegiate seasons Adley posted a .352 batting average and a 1.032 OPS. In 2018 the first overall pick was a pitcher named Casey Mize. He was a college pitcher out of Auburn with great stuff and command. Everyone saw he had the body, mechanics and college results of a future frontline starter. He had a career 2.96 ERA in college with 334 strikeouts in only 267 innings pitched. As much as I am an Adley Ritschman fan and generational catchers are so rare, I have to take Mize. A frontline starter can have such an impact on a team especially in the playoffs just ask the Nationals with Scherzer and Strasburg the Giants with Bumgarner the Cubs with Lester and many others. While yes Buster Posey was definitely an important part of the Giants three world series rings as well, the Nationals won the world series with a time share between Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes and just one year earlier the Red Sox won it all with Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez behind the plate, hardly recognizable names. Mize is also a little closer to the majors right now and has shown immense success in the minors at such a young age and we don’t know how old Adley will be when he makes it to the big leagues.

The second overall pick in 2019 was Bobby Witt Jr. he is regarded as a one of the best five tool shortstops to ever come out of high school. He hit .491 in high school with a 1.578 OPS. All his tools are rated as a 55 or above on the 20-80 rating scale used for prospects demonstrating his exceptional all-around skill set. The second overall pick in 2018 was Joey Bart out of the Georgia Institute of Technology. Bart has already advanced to Double A despite missing time due to injuries over the past two seasons. His number one offensive tool is his power, and many believe he will be an above average catcher at the highest level with maybe even more upside than that. If he becomes more selective at the plate he could be one of the best catchers in the MLB. While Bobby Witt Jr has as much upside as any prospect in today’s game he also carries considerable risk since he came out of high school and has so much development ahead of him. In this situation I like Bart because he has shown he can advance quickly, deal with injuries and the Giants have shown that a great catcher may not be the most important aspect of a championship team, but it could never hut to have one.

The third overall selection in the 2019 draft was first baseman Andrew Vaughn from the University of California. He won the Golden Spikes award as the best college player in the nation his sophomore year and was a finalist once again his junior season. He has a 60-hit tool and a 60-power tool on the 20-80 scale and considerable bat speed. He has the potential to hit .300 with 30 homeruns annually at the highest level. The third pick in the 2018 draft was a college third baseman by the name of Alec Bohm. At 6 foot 5 inches Alec Bohm is tall even for a third baseman. Many people potentially see a move to first base in the future. Despite that Bohm has worked on his defense at the hot corner and hit bat will determine his value in the future. He has great bat speed and an excellent approach at the plate. In 2019 he really took off and hit .305 across three levels with 21 homeruns. He is admired for his work ethic and I believe he will be in the Phillie’s lineup sooner rather than later. While I am a big fan of Alec Bohm and I anticipate him hitting 30 home runs annually while being an on base machine, I give the edge here to Vaughn. His bat has the potential to be special even at first base. The college success he has had is remarkable and I think it will translate very well at the big-league level.

The fourth overall pick in 2019 was JJ Bleday. He is an outfielder from the baseball factory school otherwise known as Vanderbilt. Bleday is known for his hit tool as well as his power. Even though he struggled a bit in the minors after being drafted that could be attributed to his long college season which ended in a championship for Vanderbilt. The fourth overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft was Nick Madrigal out of Oregon state University. He is a second baseman who can really hit. He is also a very good defender with speed. He fits the mold of the player you want at the top of your lineup. Now Madrigal is closer to the Majors and has about as high a floor as any minor leaguer because he has hit at every level and the big leagues should be no different. However, JJ Bleday’s power and hitting combination is something scouts dream about. I like the Bleday pick slightly more due to the enormous upside he has.

The fifth overall selection in the 2018 MLB draft was Johnathan India out of the University of Florida. While he has solid tools and potential defensive versatility he has not done anything that great in the minor leagues so far. He has a career .779 OPS in the minors thus far. In 2019 the Tigers selected Riley Greene with the fifth overall pick out of high school. Riley Greene was seen as perhaps the best pure hitter amongst high schoolers in eh draft. And while he has not posted eye popping numbers so far, his potential intrigues me a little more than India’s. I do not think either player will be great in the field, but neither will be a liability either. Riley Greene has more offensive potential and I like him more out of the two players moving forward.

This is part three of a three-part series trying to figure out what the worst trade of 2018 was. Just two months after being hired by the New York Mets, Brodie Van Waganen made a move that would have catastrophic effects on the two organizations involved. By trading away Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano the Mariners saved over 100 million dollars for the next 5 years. While Edwin Diaz was coming off of a year where he posted a 1.96 ERA and led the American league in saves with 57, he only had 52 saves in his career before that year. In 2017 his FIP was 4.02 while his ERA was 3.27. This means he was probably lucky and had a good defense behind him. Edwin Diaz has always been able to strikeout a lot of guys and has a career 14.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Edwin Diaz only had one elite year prior to the trade and trading top prospects while also eating Robinson Cano’s humongous salary is a lot to give up for one elite season. Robinson Cano has put together a hall of fame worthy career to this point. He has a career .843 OPS and a 125 OPS+. In 2018 however, he was suspended for PEDs and his hall of fame chances have since tilted considerably. In 2018 he did post an .845 OPS with 10 home runs in only 80 games for Seattle. Once he came over to the Mets though he posted a .736 OPS and a 0.3 WAR. He is now 36 years old and after posting a negative 6 defensive runs saved last season it seems like his hitting and fielding are on a downward slope. The Mets now have to pay a declining Cano over 20 million dollars for the next three years and even if Edwin Diaz is the closer he was in 2018 for the Mets going forward this will still be a tough pill to swallow. In this deal the Mariners got two of the Mets top prospects in Jared Kelenic and Justin Dunn. Jared Kelenic is a 5-tool prospect who has proven he can play center field. This is the one position the Mets do not have a short term nor long term answer for. Brodie decided to trade the one centerfield player in the entire organization who could have been the Mets centerfielder for the next 10 years. In the 2019 offseason the Mets searched for a center field upgrade such as Starling Marte, but they were only able to bring in Jake Marisnick to be a fourth outfielder. They are going to move Brandon Nimmo over to play centerfield in 2020 and potentially for the foreseeable future. Nimmo however does has a career negative 9 career defensive runs saved in centerfield. JD Davis is a negative 11 defensive runs saved in left field as he will be playing Nimmo’s old position and the Mets defense looks like it could be a potential disaster in 2020 and there may not be a solution within the organization coming soon. Justin Dunn has posted a career 3.76 era in the minor leagues and did post a 2.70 era in 6.2 innings in the Major Leagues. He did however walk 9 batters and will need to refine his command and control moving forward to stick in the Major Leagues. Jay Bruce, Gregerson Bautista and Anthony Swarzak didn’t amount for much in Seattle but Swarzak was traded to the Braves for Arodys Vizcaino and Jesse Biddle. Brodie wanted to make an immediate splash and the Mariners front office took advantage of that. The Mets finances will be strained by the Cano contract moving forward potentially restraining them from getting a franchise player added to their team such as Mookie Betts. The Mets will either have to bring in a lot more money by selling the team, unloading Cano which will probably hurt their farm system immensely or wait four more years for his contract to be up. None of those look like a good option. Brodie is the main reason for his team’s problems right now and unless he has a miracle up his sleeve or a time machine hidden in his office, I don’t think the Mets should have him in the front office much longer.

After a careful analysis of the players, their impact and their projected future impact, the worst trade of 2018 for any one team was the trade by the Pittsburg Pirates. They gave away two foundational players in Auston Meadows and Tyler Glasnow for Chris Archer who spent one and a half brutal years in a Pirates uniform and may already have pitched his last pitch in Pittsburg. The Pirates have no playoff appearances or even a good regular season record to show for it and are now entering a rebuild where they could have really used Glasnow and Meadows. While Marlins and Mets fans may believe their deals were the worst they at least have a chance to still get production from the players they received whereas nearly all hope is lost for the Pirates.